Let me be honest with you. . . up until about an hour ago I still wasn’t sure whether I should actually go through with this (i.e. keeping the Black Swan, or changing it to something else). Don’t get me wrong, I found this book very interesting, creative and thought-provoking (three great qualities I look for in a book), but it is also a difficult read.
If you are envisioning a dark/mysterious story about an aquatic fowl, you might want to sit this one out.
For those of you who like to know what they are reading before they read it, here is what the dust-jacket says:
"A Black Swan is a highly improbably event with three principal characteristics: It is inpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book--itself a black swan."
About the Author:
About the Author:
"Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, uncertainty, probability, and knowledge. Part literary essayist, part empiricist, part no-nonsense mathematical trader, he is currently taking a break by serving as the Dean's Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. His last book, the bestseller Fooled by Randomness, has been published in twenty languages. Taleb lives mostly in New York."
You can also find out more about The Black Swan here on Wikipedia. Or just type 'black swan taleb' and you should find it.
You can also find out more about The Black Swan here on Wikipedia. Or just type 'black swan taleb' and you should find it.
I don’t know how many of you have read much of Hugh Nibley, but Taleb reminds me of him for two reasons: first (a good thing) he is someone who sees things that the majority of us miss and has interesting ways of bringing it to our attention, and second (not so good) he can often leave you behind in the dust. I often envisioned myself reading this like a child trying to fit a square block in a circle hole. Anyway, with both characters (Nibley and Taleb), you can tell they have a giant gourd and are doing their best to communicate with us lower life forms.
So don’t feel bad if you have to go back a few times to make sure you are following, and use the glossary in the back--it is pretty helpful. On the positive side, if you like new, creative ideas and a change in your point of view, you will soon get used to the jargon and jump from idea to idea with interest and anticipation.
Lastly, there are a 'googolplex' ideas that Taleb conveys that we could talk about, but in order for me to get more out of the questions I will ask, I thought it might be fun to think of these topics in advance while you are reading. At the least, these ideas will give you something to look for in your reading and may make the book more applicable. The greatest challenge (by greatest I mean best, coolest, etc.), in my mind, is making the deep, abstract ideas in this book applicable in your own life (somehow), if you can find a way to apply these ideas, make a note and share it with us at the end!
Ideas to look for & discuss:
The problem with ‘because’
Your / America’s cultural history
Your view of the past & the future (or mind maps)
Social injustice & unfairness
Knowledge vs. Information, and their limitations
The fallacy of ‘professionals’, experts and other empty titles.
The problem of Induction
Steps to a higher form of life
Factoring in the Black Swans of life
How to apply this random book?
Your / America’s cultural history
Your view of the past & the future (or mind maps)
Social injustice & unfairness
Knowledge vs. Information, and their limitations
The fallacy of ‘professionals’, experts and other empty titles.
The problem of Induction
Steps to a higher form of life
Factoring in the Black Swans of life
How to apply this random book?
P.S. If you are having trouble finding this book, I saw it last on Amazon for just $16.
Oh, yeah, and if you have questions or just want to complain, I will be here, just leave a comment and we can talk about it!
